Could One Nation’s bold gas policies slash your energy bills in half? It’s a promise that sounds too good to be true, but here’s where it gets controversial. The party has proposed a groundbreaking royalty on Australian gas production, aiming to rake in $10–$13 billion annually by charging producers $1.70–$2 per gigajoule based on output, not profits. This move, however, has sparked a fiery debate. Critics argue it could cripple the industry, drive up consumer prices, and scare off investors. But One Nation insists it’s the key to ending what they call the ‘rort’ on natural gas supplies. And this is the part most people miss: if implemented correctly, the revenue could subsidize energy bills indefinitely, cutting costs by up to one-third for households and businesses alike.
Economists warn of potential downsides, with energy expert Bruce Mountain predicting a 12% drop in LNG spot market revenues—and possibly more for long-term contracts. He claims applying the royalty to new projects could halt production entirely. Meanwhile, existing producers might view it as expropriation, chilling exploration efforts. Yet, not everyone is dismissive. Analyst Saul Kanovic acknowledges One Nation’s plan has merit, particularly in cutting red tape, though he cautions the royalty could spike gas prices.
Here’s the kicker: East Coast producers would bear the brunt, as rising costs and global LNG oversupply could render some projects unviable. One Nation also advocates for coal and nuclear investment, lifting gas appliance restrictions, and reserving 15% of residential gas. But the real question is: Are these measures a lifeline for consumers or a death knell for the industry?
Critics cry foul over expropriation, but supporters argue that if gas cartels lied to secure project approvals, they deserve harsh consequences. The Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) could prevent price hikes, but it remains unused—why? As for investment fears, gas firms will act if profits are there. Queensland gas, for instance, remains highly profitable at $4.50/GJ cost plus 20% profit. The cash cost of gas is likely just $1/GJ—so why are Australians footing the bill for LNG profiteering?
Consider this: Gas produced in Queensland at $4.50/GJ, with a 20% profit and $2/GJ royalty, plus $2.50/GJ for piping to Melbourne, delivers gas at $10/GJ—still $3/GJ below the East Coast average. If producers push back, ‘use it or lose it’ laws could be enforced. If that fails, threaten higher royalties or nationalize projects under a National Gas Company. After all, this market has failed spectacularly.
With $10 billion in revenue, One Nation could subsidize electricity bills permanently, halving retail energy prices. Western Australia might grumble, but its gas would generate most of the revenue, and it would gain cheap power in return. Cheap gas and cheaper electricity would stabilize the energy transition, making coal and nuclear investments unnecessary. So, are these economists and analysts too purist—or are they protecting vested interests?
This isn’t an economic debate; it’s a test of political will to fix a broken system. What do you think? Is One Nation’s plan a bold solution or a reckless gamble? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments!
